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INTERNATIONAL DEBT CRISIS.
  Term Paper ID:18025
Essay Subject:
Origins, less developed countries, U.S. indebtedness, banks, International Monetary Fund, conditionality, stabilization process, trade, currency, investments, future. Tables.... More...
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Paper Abstract:
Origins, less developed countries, U.S. indebtedness, banks, International Monetary Fund, conditionality, stabilization process, trade, currency, investments, future. Tables.

Paper Introduction:
INTRODUCTION This research examines the international debt crisis. International debt is the external debt owed by a country--either a country's government or entities within that country. An external deficit develops for a country when the claims of foreign entities on the country's economy exceed the claims of entities in that country on the economies of other countries. A country's external debt is comprised of loans to both government and private sector organizations in the country. Loans to government entities involve sovereign risk, while loans to all other entities involve enterprise risk. Loans involved in a country's external debt are extended by other governments, by international organizations (primarily the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and The World Bank), and by

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As the datapresented in table one indicate, there are 14 LDCs with net external debtsin excess of US$2 billion. % +141.1 bil +17. An external deficit develops for a country when the claims of foreignentities on the country's economy exceed the claims of entities in thatcountry on the economies of other countries. This need led directly to the implementation of ahigh real interest rate policy by the federal reserve (Nussbaum, 1987, p.161). The likelihood that either the BushAdministration or the Federal Reserve will initiate policies to attain suchrestraint, however, are quite slim. Only one type of the investments--U.S. Treasury debtinstruments. The IMF has established many concepts and criteria to govern theextension of balance of payments loans. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), however,plays a special role in this loan activity, because it, for the most part,establishes the rules of the game for all parties, as well as extendingloans on its own (Grosse & Kujawa, 1988, p. International Monetary Fund. trade deficit havebeen suggested. Reductions in agricultural subsidies would not likely make Americanagricultural products more competitive, because the U.S. willalso encounter legal problems with respect to agricultural subsidies,because of differing definitions of subsidy. A second subsidy account was established to assist low-income developing nations meet the higher charges associated with loansmade through the supplemental financing facility. Brazil'sexternal debt is equal to 46.4 percent of GNP. (1989, February). The U.S. B3). Weiner, B. The American federal budgetdeficit created a pressing need for foreign investment to support U.S.Treasury debt issues. refuses torecognize the payments as subsidies. %1983 873.9 bil + 5.9% 784.5 bil +14. 61 trillion) (p. Most foreign assets in the U.S. (1983, March/April). 163), and (3) the potential forthe U.S. in the financial services area contributedto the development of the country's merchandise trade deficit, bycontributing in a major way to the external debt problem faced by mostdeveloping countries. external deficit. When extremely seriousproblems are involved, conditions may not attempt to impose a return to abalance of payments surplus position during the term of the loan. Little has been reported,however, on (1) the emergence of the United States (U.S.) as a debtornation in 1985 (Rubenstein, 1988, p. (1987, November). percent in all other years.The combined effects of these differing rates of growth led to thetransformation of the U.S. A supplemental financing facility was established in 1979, whichpermitted increased access to IMF resources by member nations experiencingrelatively (to gross domestic product) high payments imbalances. negotiators was an improved access toforeign markets for U.S. 3. The largest external debt among the LDCs isthat of Brazil, which is nearly US$1 7 billion. 43, No. A subsidy account was also established to assist those membernations most seriously affected by oil price increases in meeting theinterest payments on oil facility loans. 55-59), and this potential is ofeven greater concern to the lending countries. Government Printing Office. India 35.5Indonesia 35.7Israel 23.9Korea (South) 47.9Mexico 97.5Nigeria 23.3Philippines 26.3Poland 26. Such loans, for the most part, arecharacterized by high interest rates, specific annual (or more often)repayment requirements, and specific terms (maturity dates). Government Printing Office. already meets orexceeds agricultural subsidies paid in any other country. 36). The Administration,and particularly the president, pointed with pride to the increasing valueof the currency. financial services. will continue to grow well into the 199 s. 4. As recently as 1984, the U.S. The other types of investment assets held by foreigners in the U.S.are not characterized by the same type of high-pressure factors. Thus, IMF policies have been a major contributor to theincrease in the external debt of the developing countries. External Deficit 1979-1988 (US$)=================================================================Year US Assets Annual Foreign Annual Surplus/ Annual Abroad Change Assets Change Deficit Change in U.S.-----------------------------------------------------------------1979527.3 bil +17.7% 428.9 bil +15.4% + 98.4 bil +29. For political reasons, the U.S. A continuation of thebudget deficit means a continuation of Federal Reserve dependency onforeign investors, and a continuing dependency on foreign investors means acontinuation of real high interest rate policies in the U.S. A continuation of present trends leads to predictions of an Americanexternal deficit in excess of US$1. The potential for default tends to vary by country. Turkey 26. Economic report ofthe President. Table 1 External Debt: Developing Countries With Net Debt of At Least US$2 BillionCountry External Debt (US$--billions)-----------------------------------------------------------------Argentina 48.5Brazil 1 6.8Chile 2 .2Egypt 24. More often than not, conditions established by the IMF emphasizemeasures which affect balance of payments through the level and compositionof demand within the borrowing nation's domestic economy. Many analysts view theexternal debt as essential for continued development in the region;however, all analysts recognize the complexity it has introduced into thestabilization efforts. Treasury instruments. merchandise trade deficit. With respect to debt instruments,foreign assets in the Us are primarily either in the form of corporatebonds, or U.S. Stronger trade laws aregenerally perceived within the context of protectionist trade legislation.The U.S. International business. Wilkins, H. THE STATUS OF EXTERNAL DEBT Most of the world's developing countries have a net external debt in199 . % 1.77 tril +15.2% -473.3 bil +28.5% (IMF, January 199 a; Council of Economic Advisers, January 199 ; Council of Economic Advisers, February 1989) References Council of Economic Advisors. To be sure,however, the complete withdrawal of foreign investment in these assetswould place major pressures on the economy. gross domestic product (GDP) in1986, as an example, was $4,311.7 billion. Exports were $372.3 billion, or8.6 percent of GDP. Tokeep the dollar from becoming even weaker in the face of continuing tradedeficits, the Federal Reserve must either make massive interventions in theinternational currency markets, or it must further increase real interestrates. World Development Report. slipped into debtor status, withclaims against others (US$95 .3 billion) more than offset by claims againstits own economy (US$1. from 1979 through 1988 is presented in Table 3. The increase in the value of the dollar, of course, set in motion (1)increasing import levels, (2) decreasing export levels, and (3) a flood ofmoney leaving the U.S. The IMF is extensively involved in the LDC external debt crisis. Based on the presentations in this research, it is concludedthat: (1) IMF involvement in the context of conditionality is not apositive factor in the addressing of stabilization problems in LDCS; and(2) nonmonetarist initiatives will likely produce more satisfactory long-term results than will monetarist interventions. The value of the U.S. At that same time, commercial banksin the developed countries were awash in money. The OPEC countries requiredsafe havens for their newly acquired capital, and banks in the developedcountries provided those havens. (199 a, January). Manyeconomists are coming to believe that consumption in the American economymust be restrained from current levels, if the country's external deficitis to be dealt with effectively. The world's largest debtor?National Review, 14. 47-49).Washington: Author. Inthe process, of course, the U.S., so to speak, cuts off its own nose tospite its own face. The World Bank. Since 1985, the external deficit of the U.S. claims on foreigneconomies has not retrenched. Theorganization has created special facilities, which deal primarily withLDCS. considers some payments by other governments to be subsidies, whilethose governments do not. In 1985, the U.S. In actuality, however,the developing country is simply being pushed further into debt, and theassets held by the creditors are becoming progressively more worthless,with a strong likelihood that they will never be paid. It maywell require the development of such an external deficit, before thecountry's creditors force the U.S. 71 tril +12.7% 1.341 tril +26.4% -269.2 bil + 2.4X1987 1.168 tril + 9. Washington: Author. The successful strategiesof the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the 197 shas resulted in the transfer of enormous volumes of money from thedeveloped countries to the OPEC countries. Washington: U.S. The performance of the American economycontributed to the attractiveness of U.S. from a creditor to a debtor country. (1984). (where total economic activity is considered to be GDP plusimports). Effectively addressing the American external deficit requires, inaddition to dealing with the country's international trade deficit, and inaddition to dealing with the international currency exchange value of thedollar, action with respect to the federal government's budget deficit,real interest rates, and consumption in the American economy. THE ORIGINS OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEBT CRISIS The less developed countries (LDCs), on the one hand, and the U.S.,on the other hand, came to the status of debtor countries by differentroutes. The international monetary fund: Itsevolution, organization, and activities. 329.1 *Venezuela 64.2 69.9 263.1 782.3 * Negative net imports. For the remaining nine countries,external debt may be expressed as a percentage of net exports (exportsminus imports). has the largest externaldeficit of any country (Nussbaum, 1987, p. Economic indicators. would be hurt by a spate of protectionist legislation in manycountries, including the U.S.. The U.S. and some other western countries ofsignificant growth in merchandise exports. has consistentlyopposed any form of linkage between GATT and the Soviet Union and someother east bloc states. assets abroad slowed significantly in the1983-1985 time period, and the improved growth rates subsequent to 1985have not recovered to pre-1983 levels. To most developing nations borrowing from the IMF, however,rational pricing is a euphemistic phrase meaning higher prices. 77-79). Effectively addressing the country'sinternational trade deficit is one area where action is required. The American initiatives at the Eighth Round are not likely to play amajor role in reducing the country's trade deficit. This investment may be through the ownership andoperation of productive enterprises; it may be in the form of equity stockinvestment; it may be in the form of investment in real property; or it maybe investment in debt instruments. Thecontinuing maturation of these instruments, together with the Americangovernment's massive federal budget deficits, requires the Federal Reserveto conduct regularly scheduled auctions of new U.S. A case may even be made thatearlier activities by the U.S. The U.S. It may be well andgood to tell Americans that they should drink bourbon rather than scotch,or drive Fords rather than Toyotas. 447.2 1234.2Nigeria 31.5 33.1 186.4 629.7Philippines 8 .7 78.5 584.4 *Poland 23.6 23.9 4 . Servicing this debt makes it difficult for many ofthese countries to import merchandise. The only hope that these countries haveof reducing external debt levels by any significant amount is through (1)the application of severe austerity measures to economies already reeling,(2) default, or (3) forgiveness by debtors. By the end of 1988, more than one-half of theoutstanding external debt for the Latin American nations, as an example,consisted of interest charges which had been deferred or rolled-over intonew loans. 417.2 861.3Chile 99.5 1 5.2 545.9 2 2 . Loans involved in a country's external debt are extended by othergovernments, by international organizations (primarily the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) and The World Bank), and by private sector lenders inother countries (primarily banks, but also by investors who buy bonds andother debt obligations). Council of Economic Advisors. At the beginning of spring in199 , the American dollar is strengthening against the yen and the mark,and the major result is a worsening of the country's international tradedeficit. with increased American tourism. In some instances, domestic substitutes for imports are available inthe U.S.. Rationalpricing, in the jargon of economics, refers to realistic, market valuepricing. International Monetary Fund. Grosse, R., & Kujawa, D. The nature of the conditions imposed by the IMF vary from case tocase. (199 , January). Internationaldebt is the external debt owed by a country--either a country's governmentor entities within that country. Venezuela 32.1 (Sources: IMF, 199 a; The World Bank, 1989) Table 2 External Debt as a Percent of Selected Macroeconomic Aggregates: Developing Countries With Net Debt of At Least US$2 Billion=================================================================Country External Debt as a Percent of:----------------------------------------------------------------- GNP GDP Exports Net Exports ---------------------------------------Argentina 69.4 74.2 584.3 1 77.8Brazil 46.4 49. The data presented in Table 2 reveal that eight of the 14 countrieshave external debt which is greater than 5 percent of GNP, and that onecountry--Israel--has an external debt in excess of 1 percent of GNP(Chile has an external debt equal to 99.5 percent of GNP). The U.S. Such countries typically receiveprincipal payment deferrals, and additional loans to cover interestpayments. Imports, on the other hand, were $477.5 billion, or11.1 percent of GDP. These facilities provided temporary loans, without respect toquota, to assist member nations meet the increased costs of oil imports.The oil facilities were (and continue to be) funded through borrowedresources. (Sources: Calculated from data obtained from: IMF, 199 a; The World Bank, 1989) Table 3 Development of U.S. Because of the significance of the American external deficit for theU.S., and because of the importance of the American economy within theinternational economy, the American external debt is considered in thisexamination of the international debt crisis. Unhappily, theAdministration's policy makers did not know when to quit. Facing the inevitable. Brazil is not one ofthese five unfortunate countries. A Trust Fund was established in 1976, to both make directdistributions and to make loans to low-income developing nations which arealso members of the IMF. Treasury instruments --indicated above places immediate pressure on the American economy. For the 14 developing countries includedin Table 1, these additional data are presented in Table 2. Inreaching this deficit position, the value of U.S. The policy ofincreasing the value of the dollar must be credited as a major contributorto the breaking of double-digit inflation in the country. OPEC, all the while,was relatively safe, because (1) the western banks were responsible forOPEC money invested with them, and (2) LDC obligations were to the westernbanks. slowed only slightly in 1983 and 1984,and, with the exception of particularly strong growth in 1986, maintainedannual growth between 14.6 percent and 19. Conditions, however, are expected to "provide confidence that theborrowing member will overcome its balance of payments difficulties and beable to repurchase its currency from the Fund without undue strain duringthe specified period" (Driscoll, 1984, p. are in theform of investment. The combined effects of the American international tradedeficit, and the weakening international currency exchange value of theAmerican dollar, the American federal budget deficit, the performance ofthe American economy, and Federal Reserve interest rate policy led to thedevelopment of the U.S. external deficit to either equal or exceed that of all othercountries combined by some point in the early-199 s (Nasar, 1988, pp. (1988, May 23). The American path to debtor nation status was quite different fromthat of the LDCS. also joined Canadaand Australia in seeking reductions (and eventual elimination) ofagricultural subsidies. 14), (2) the growth of the Americanexternal deficit to the point where the U.S. is essential in any effort toeffectively address the country's external deficit. Conditions mayalso emphasize, supply factors. Rubenstein, E. New York Times, p.B-3. In order to assess the implications of the external debt ofdeveloping countries, it is necessary to relate the external debt of acountry to other macroeconomic measures. OUTLOOK Using the power of the conditionality concept the IMF has forced LDCsto adopt economic policies which were designed more to protect theinterests of lenders than they were to create long-term benefits in thecountries. INTRODUCTION This research examines the international debt crisis. Resources for the Trust Fund are derived fromsales of IMF gold holdings. finds itself, so tospeak, between a rock and a hard place. As the data presented in the table indicate, among thesenine countries, net external debt as a percent of net exports ranges from alow of 43 .1 percent to a staggering high of 2,363.6 percent. has been growingrapidly: from US$11 .7 billion in 1985, to US$269.2 billion in 1986, toUS$368.2 billion in 1987, to an estimated US$473.3 billion in 1988 (IMF,199 b, p. Always,however, the policies of conditionality have tended to support ever largerloans (to accommodate past due interest in many instances) at ever moreflexible interest rates. And now the bill comes due.Business Week, 16 -161, 163. While the IMF cannot be blamed entirely for the predicaments in whichthe developing nations find themselves in the early-199 s, the organizationcertainly may be cited as a prime contributor to some of the economicproblems, and, in turn, some of the social and political problems,experienced by these nations. The banks in the developed countries,after acquiring the OPEC money, needed borrowers for massive amounts ofcapital. 174). Treasury instruments, they would alsotend to dampen the country's economic performance. government is opposedto any action which would make life any easier for the Soviet Union. Thus, with respect tothe value of the dollar and interest rates, the U.S. It is not simply that theU.S. Conditionality, as used by the IMF,refers to policies that member nations are expected (by the IMF) to agreeto implement and observe, as a requirement, before a balance of paymentsloan is extended from any of the organization's special financingfacilities. In recent years, conditions have also often emphasized the creation,within a borrowing nation's domestic economy, of positive interest rates,and the establishment of rational pricing for public services. In many instances, however, they are not. All of the special financing facilities described above, togetherwith the tranche quota loans, provide the balance of payments loanframework within which the IMF conducts its primary activities in the mid-198 s. 41 ). A country's external debt iscomprised of loans to both government and private sector organizations inthe country. Complicating the stabilization problem in most developing nations isthe massive external debt owed by these nations. The supplemental financing facility,as was true of the oil facilities, was (and continues to be) funded throughborrowed resources. As the data presented in Table 3 indicate, the growth in the value ofU.S. 61 tril +18.9% -11 .7 bil -32.6X1986 1. Five of the 14 countries import more than they export; thus, havelittle hope of ever reducing their external debt. from the IMF: Shape up!Fortune, 77-79. (1988, November 7). The ruse perpetuates the myths (1) that the developing countryis not in default, and (2) that the assets (loans to the developingcountry) held by the creditors remain productive. Thereturn on these other investments is largely tied to economic performance,and short-term settlement dates are not typically involved. The American international tradedeficit placed more dollars in the hands of foreigners. The debt burden of the developingcountries. The weak dollar is, in part, a function of the trade deficit. 41 ; Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), 199 , p. 2. In the mid-197 s, two temporary oil financing facilities wereestablished. The orientation of the conditions imposed bythe IMF tend to change over time, as the orientation of politicaladministrations in Washington change (although the IMF is an internationalorganization, voting power is based on contributions to the organization;thus, the United States may virtually dictate IMF policy). 2363.6Turkey 45.6 43. All that has really changed isthe rate of growth of the deficit, and that change has been relativelyminor. %198 6 6.7 bil +15.1% 486.1 bil +13.3% +12 .6 bil +22.6%1981 719.8 bil +18.6% 578.7 bil +19. Should,however, any one of the big-three debtors--Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico--default, there would likely be a ripple effect throughout most of the otherdeveloping countries (Wilkins, 1983, pp. %1982 824.9 bil +14.6% 688.1 bil +18.9% +136.9 bil - 3. 41 ). 1). In 1981,access through the supplemental fund was further expanded, to provide evenlarger loans in relation to quotas. In the case of developing countries, thebulk of the external debt is comprised of commercial bank loans, loans frominternational organizations (such as The World Bank), and loans from thegovernments of developed countries. Loans to government entities involve sovereign risk, whileloans to all other entities involve enterprise risk. The possibility that developing countries will default on theirexternal debts sends shockwaves through the lender countries (Weiner, 1986,p. spurred furtherforeign investment in U.S. dollar in international currency exchangemarkets increased each year, beginning in 198 , and extending through thesummer of 1985. (1986, May). % + 89.4 bil -34.7%1984 896.1 bil + 2.5% 892.6 bil +13.8% + 3.5 bil -96.1%1985 95 .3 bil + 6. opposition to the inclusion of the Soviet Union in GATT willcontinue to deprive the U.S. To resolve the problem of the American external deficit, a number ofcoordinated actions are required. As a consequence, many developing countries continuallyfind themselves up against the wall, so to speak, unable to meet eitherprincipal or interest payments without further punishing an alreadydeprived population (and, in some instances, unable to do so even if theyfurther punish their population). Foremost among the suggested remedies are (1) successfulimplementation of the Eighth Round of the General Agreement on Trade andTariffs (GATT), (2) stronger trade laws, and (3) further exchange raterealignment, The Eighth GATT Round was held in Uruguay in September 1986. The Bush Administration, as was the preceding Reagan Administration,is a vocal opponent of stronger trade laws. Washington: InternationalMonetary Fund. Table 1 presents the external debt for those developingcountries whose net external debt exceeds US$2 billion. an attractive place for foreigners to considerplacing their excess dollars. investment, because of theenhanced probability of significant profit. Nussbaum, B. 35). The debt load of developing countries createsproblems associated with economic stabilization in the best of times. Iflenders, particularly the IMF, are not sensitive to such changingconditions, stabilization programs imposed by the IMF may be wrecked. It is also apparent that effective action to significantly reduce thefederal government budget deficit in the U.S. government to be subsidies, while the U.S. For Brazil,this percentage is 861.3 percent. (199 b, February). In fact, however, the combination ofexports and imports account for 17.7 percent of total economic activity inthe U.S. Although real interest rate increases would be welcome by foreigninvestors in corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury instruments.Without massive foreign participation in these auctions, the U.S.government will not be able to continue to finance its deficit, whilesimultaneously keeping price inflation in the country's economy undercontrol. Some of these countries, however, have a much larger external debtthan do others. to take the required actions--actionswhich will lead to significant reductions in the American standard ofliving. These facilities are as follows: 1. United States.International Balance of Payments Statistics (Vol. Intimes of unusual and unexpected shocks (commodity price changes--forexports or imports, natural disasters, and so forth), the debt load maybecome unsustainable within original conditionality frameworks. The union of OPEC money and LDCS, with western banks as marriagebroker, thus, appeared to be heavenly sent. Irwin. % 1. (1988). International Economics, 55-59. It is quite another, to tell thecountry's armed forces to do without chromium, or to tell American industryand the general public to get by on one-half of the energy it is accustomedto using. The extended financing facility was created in 1974, to providefor loans larger than tranche quota loans, and to provide for longerrepayment periods than those associated with tranche loans. trillion in the early-199 s. The weakeninginternational currency exchange value of the dollar made bargain pricedinvestments in the U.S. corporate bonds, and in U.S. Homewood,IL: R.D. Driscoll, D.D., (Ed.). Theaction sought most earnestly by U.S. In their eagerness to earn a fee, the western banks, as marriagebroker, assumed responsibility for the success of the marriage of OPECmoney and LDC borrowing. In the 197 s, the LDCs required capital for development, and theyhad populations clamoring for some of the economic benefits enjoyed by theresidents of the developed countries. The character of the American external debt differs greatly from thatof the developing countries. In spite of rhetoric to the contrary, each of the five factors whichled to the development of the American external deficit continues.Improvements in the country's international trade deficit, although widelyheralded, are really rather insignificant. The character of the American external deficit, as well as itsmagnitude, must be considered. New York:Oxford U P.----------------------- 25 was a creditor nation, with claimsagainst foreign economies (US$896.1 billion) just exceeding foreign claimson the American economy (US$892.6 billion) (International Monetary Fund(IMF), 199 b, p. Washington: U.S. The banks, in their eagernessto loan money, made the most optimistic assumptions possible with respectto sovereign risk, with the result that (1) they loaned too much to riskyborrowers, and (2) many countries borrowed too much. 1, pp. The development of the externaldeficit of the U.S. Rather, the growth of foreign claims againstthe American economy has accelerated. Theprovisions of such loans are not, again for the most part, directly tied toeither a country's annual economic performance, or its ability to pay inany given period. % 1.536 tril +14.6% -368.2 bil +36.8%1988 1.297 tril +11. U.S. The world's press provides a continuing stream of reports relative tothe external debt of developing countries. In its dealings with the developing countries, the IMF employs aprotocol known as conditionality. The high real interest rates available in the U.S. Nasar, S. In many instances, other governments considerpayments by the U.S. Agreeing to abide by these IMF-developed conditions is alsousually required by private sector lenders. To the U.S. Egypt 72.7 61.2 648.6 *India 18.7 18. Therefore, the Federal Reservemust pay heed to the demands of foreign investors with respect to thegeneral performance of the American economy, interest rates, and otherfactors. 443.8 *Indonesia 45.3 5 .6 192.7 43 .1Israel 113.8 1 8.1 385.5 *Korea (South) 52.9 51.1 138. These other macroeconomicmeasures are gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product (GDP),total exports, and net exports. Foreigners continue to amass dollars as a result of the continuinginternational trade deficit. On the face of it, it might appear that the U.S.would be a net winner in a trade war. By contrast, the growth in thevalue of foreign assets in the U.S. (1989). The extendedfacility loans were intended for nations where balance of payments problemswere attributable to (a) structural weakness in the internal economy, pr(b) weak external positions which precluded the implementation of aneffective development program. 1496.9Mexico 61.7 65. What growth isavailable in the financial services area is relatively insignificant, whencompared the U.S. This movement of the dollar was in concert with aconscious policy pursued by the Reagan Administration. InternationalFinancial Statistics (Vol 43, No. A number of solutions to the problem of the U.S. Regardless ofall of the rhetoric, the real evidence available indicates that the federalbudget deficit in the U.S.

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